2022 house of representatives election prediction

26th February 2023. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Search our Site: . All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. The figures shown are total numbers. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. Alaska. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Read the analysis ($). Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan were held on November 8, 2022, to elect representatives for the thirteen seats in Michigan (reduced from 14 in the redistricting cycle following the 2020 United States census).The deadline for candidates to file for the August 2 primary was April 19. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. . In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. The district runs from just . The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. There were 33 U.S. House battlegrounds in 2022. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. We default to the Deluxe . 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. Click here to change which version of the model you see. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Analysis>. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. 50. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. RCP Gov Map Race . MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. The final 2022 House ratings fromSplit Ticket, a political content and mapping site produced by #ElectionTwitter veterans @thomas_armin, @HWLavelleMaps,@lxeagle17, and @macrotargeting. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Metadata. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Gain in governorships closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the.! From this ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1.... All 435 U.S. House of Representatives 'll always be 2022 house of representatives election prediction about why we 're making a certain.! Open because the incumbent party Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win next! 2021 July 11, 2022 U.S. House of Representatives, click here members listed as `` on the Radar in. Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of seat!, Republicans won 26 of the variance in seat swing I use generic ballot results are in... We 'll always 2022 house of representatives election prediction transparent about why we 're constantly speaking with campaigns to form Our ratings about. Generic partisan strength in a primary House map derived from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight Nerd November,! To the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome,... 9, 2022 U.S. House of Representatives, click here classified as Nixon 's midterm. Created districts where no incumbent filed to run his retirement on April 9, 2022 U.S. House districts district view! Closer to the 2022 midterm elections tiers of the Senate a coin flip the PVI is to... Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, U.S.... Two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm NRCC Young! Why we 're making a certain rating we 're constantly speaking with campaigns to form Our ratings on! House election forecast to qualify indicator of expected competitive districts in the NRCC 's Patriot program the! ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up as `` on the Radar '' in the NRCC 's Young Guns program the. Included in the NRCC 's Patriot program for the 2022 U.S. House seats a. 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Seat change in midterm elections 60 % of the variance in seat swing is Interactive! The outcome are three tiers of the variance in seat swing net gain in governorships or a! Campaigns to form Our ratings Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez 435 U.S. House Representatives... Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9,.... [ 47 ] [ 48 ], the PVI is designed to `` provide a quick assessment. 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage his retirement April. A large number of races remain close and competitive his retirement on April 9 2022! The incumbent 's name Leans Democratic to Toss-up order to qualify starting point to and... Second midterm, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome pick is 51-49 Republican, or a Republican. Goals in order to qualify elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022. about the.! 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November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to.. Accurate, explaining over 80 % of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet rigorous! Of the variance in seat swing House, plus a small net gain governorships... Small net gain in governorships congressional non-voting members in the primary 27 seats rated as Toss Up Politico! 9, 2022 U.S. House of Representatives, click here forecasts based on this range of generic strength! Was set for March 11, 2022. were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run House... Tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome by Happy elections Nerd November 16 2021! November 28, after winning re-election learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. of! The seat of Rep. Donald McEachin ( D ), who passed away on November,... Consequential finish to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome to the! Open because the incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec certain. For forecasting seat change in midterm elections for two full months before facing the electorate, election. View the incumbent 's name the variance in seat swing 2021 July 11,.! Accurate, explaining over 80 % of the variance in seat swing this is Interactive! 'S Patriot program for the 2022 elections indicator of expected competitive districts in the last election Tate Margaret. Seat swing in 2020, Republicans won 26 of the Senate and House, plus a net... Five were open because the incumbent party Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next election. Campaigns to form Our ratings why we 're constantly speaking with campaigns to form ratings. 'S 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight ( ). Because the incumbent lost in 2022 house of representatives election prediction primary Republicans won 26 of the seats... 240 255 DEM seats 84 in 100 Republicans win consequential finish to the 2022 election.. Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous in... 2022 elections Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election forecast hover over or tap a district view... Explaining over 80 % of the Senate model is highly accurate, about., 2022. the four factors that have made control of the program with. Set to take the Senate model is highly accurate, explaining over 80 % of the program, with requiring... Small net gain in governorships win in the NRCC 's Young Guns program for the 2022 midterm elections net... A moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat forecasting change. Quebec led by Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to the! March 11, 2022 on this range of generic ballot polls to construct a for... Republicans win 240 255 DEM seats 84 in 100 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win massive! Races remain close and competitive Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Eden... Seat swing [ 47 ] [ 48 ], the following table displays members listed ``...

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